PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA – OCTOBER 03: Mathews Phosa at the meet and greet between the government and South Africa’s Special Olympics Team at the Union Buildings on October 03, 2023 in Pretoria, South Africa. Team South Africa excelled at the XVI Special Olympic World Games, which took place in Berlin, Germany, winning 49 medals. (Photo by Gallo Images/Frennie Shivambu)

ANC veteran Mathews Phosa has laid out a scenario that sees the influence of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party becoming stronger in the country’s political landscape if government dithers on delivery. 

He said the Phala Phala scandal lingering over President Cyril Ramaphosa could potentially reshape the ANC’s leadership choices in the face of even more bleak electoral prospects in the future. 

The former ANC treasurer-general, said this in his new book, Witness to Power, which paints a picture of shifting political allegiance, particularly in the aftermath of the recent elections. The real twist in the tale, according to Phosa, is the potential rise of Zuma-backed forces. 

Phosa’s vision of the ANC’s future is not rosy. “My view is that the ANC will decline further in the years leading up to the next general election,” he said. While the MKP seems poised to flourish, the EFF, led by Julius Malema, might not be so lucky. 

“Attempts to charge Zuma after this haemorrhage are simply exercises in futility. He will continue to play the victim card, whipping up support for the MKP in preparation for the 2026 local government elections,” he said. 

Phosa speculated that the MKP might dominate the local government scene in KwaZulu-Natal, a stronghold for Zuma loyalists. 

Yet, the fortunes of the MKP and Zuma are intertwined. Phosa opined, “The fortunes of the MKP are closely tied to Jacob Zuma. Once he goes, the party will also struggle to maintain momentum.” This implies that Zuma’s personal appeal and controversial tactics are integral to the party’s current success. However, Phosa is skeptical about their longevity without Zuma at the helm. 

 Phosa observed that in the post-election period, the EFF started losing senior leaders and support. “This was also in a way predictable, as it and the MKP sought support from the same constituencies,” Phosa said. The MKP, with its strong ties to Zuma, has managed to capture the hearts of a significant segment of voters who feel disenchanted, he noted. 

 With voters growing weary of blame-game politics and yearning for leadership that prioritises national interest over party politics, he said, the ANC must adapt. “Voters proved in the 2024 election that they have become sophisticated, and neither the ANC nor other parties illustrated that they understood this,” Phosa observes. “South Africans have had enough of social and political liberation; they voted with their feet for economic liberation.” 

 He said the real test for the ANC might come from within as it grapples with the implications of the Phala Phala scandal. Phosa predicted, “It is possible that the ANC, in the trauma of the post-election analysis, will look for fresh leadership because parties always blame their leaders in the wake of election defeat.” 

The Phala Phala scandal, which erupted last year, involved allegations over undeclared foreign currency found on Ramaphosa’s private farm, raising questions of propriety and transparency. “Unfortunately, the Phala Phala events continue to weigh on the current president after the ANC used its then-majority to protect him in parliament,” Phosa wrote in his book. 

Regarding the DA, he said the party seemed poised to retain its support, but it faced the tricky position of being a partner in government with the ANC, potentially sharing the blame for any future failures. “The DA will likely retain most of its support, although it faces the danger of being the largest party in government behind the ANC while also being its partner,” Phosa said.  

 According to Phosa, the dissatisfaction among voters presents an opportunity for new leadership to emerge, potentially bringing together like-minded individuals who can transfer their success from other areas of society into politics.  

“We face the reality that voters no longer buy into the arguments that we must blame apartheid, the whites, the capitalists, global economic trends, or the West for our lack of delivery on our promises,” Phosa asserts.