South Africa is approaching a critical moment in its political history as the upcoming national elections on May 29th could see the ANC lose its majority for the first time.

 

 

Businessman and independent political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki has identified what he calls the ANC’s “five deadly sins” that have led the

ruling party to this precarious position.

 

His insights offer a sobering look at the challenges facing South Africa and why many voters are reconsidering their support for the once-

dominant political force.

 

Mbeki draws a biblical analogy, comparing the ANC’s failures to “deadly sins,” a reference inspired by his Catholic boarding school education.

 

He believes this framework helps to understand the deep-rooted issues crippling South Africa’s progress under ANC leadership.

The first deadly sin, according to Mbeki, was the ANC’s failure to privatize state-owned enterprises inherited from the previous National

 

Party regime.

 

These enterprises, including massive infrastructure like railways and electricity providers, were crucial for economic development.

 

 

However, the ANC attempted to manage them without the necessary skills or experience, leading to ongoing crises such as the 17-year

electricity supply failure.

 

Mbeki highlights a Harvard study comparing South Africa’s electricity woes to Chile’s, which took only five years to resolve a similar crisis.

 

The ANC’s inability to fix this problem reflects a broader lack of technical expertise, worsened by the legacy of apartheid-era education

policies that deliberately under-skilled the black population.

 

The second sin involves the ANC’s approach to building a black middle class.

 

Instead of fostering entrepreneurship and skill development, the party focused on placing black South Africans in highly paid public sector

jobs through affirmative action.

 

This created a bloated and expensive administrative class, draining resources from productive sectors of the economy.

 

The third sin is linked to Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), which Mbeki criticizes as benefiting a small elite rather than creating broad-

based economic reform.

 

He explains how business interests co-opted anti-apartheid leaders, resulting in wealth concentration instead of widespread empowerment.

 

The fourth sin is the ANC’s failure to address regional instability, particularly turning a blind eye to the economic and democratic collapse in

neighboring Zimbabwe.

 

This neglect has led to a flood of displaced people entering South Africa, increasing social tensions and straining resources.

 

 

Additionally, the ANC ignored the illicit heroin trade linked to Mozambique, which has had dangerous consequences both locally and

internationally.

 

The fifth and final sin concerns the decline of South Africa’s military and border control capabilities.

 

Mbeki warns that the underfunded and understaffed army leaves the country vulnerable to rebel groups and criminal elements crossing

porous borders.

 

This has exacerbated xenophobic tensions within South Africa and compromised national security.

 

Mbeki paints a bleak picture of South Africa’s future if the ANC continues on its current path.

 

President Ramaphosa’s insistence on maintaining existing policies suggests little hope for meaningful change.

 

The ANC’s political dominance is waning, with recent local elections showing a significant drop in support to around 45%.

 

 

The party has lost control of major metropolitan areas, signaling the possible end of an era that began with the National Party’s rule in 1924.

 

Mbeki calls this moment the end of the nationalist era in South African politics, marking a turning point for the country.

 

However, he cautions that the real challenge lies in what comes next and how South Africa will move forward.

 

Opposition parties remain fragmented and largely cater to minority interests rather than the majority of South Africans.

 

For example, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is criticized for having a minority African membership despite claiming racial representativeness.

 

Similarly, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) primarily appeal to the African middle class and some working-class segments.

 

Mbeki argues that no current party adequately represents the working-class majority or rural poor, who make up the bulk of the population.

 

This lack of inclusive political alternatives complicates the prospect of effective governance and reform.

 

 

Despite the ANC’s decline, it is expected to remain central to South African politics, likely governing in coalition with smaller parties.

 

Mbeki stresses the need for a political landscape with genuine competition among two or three major parties to foster democratic balance.

 

Until then, South Africa risks continued stagnation and unresolved structural problems.

 

Mbeki’s analysis has sparked widespread discussion and debate, highlighting the urgency of addressing these “deadly sins.”

 

While some critics reject his views, many agree that South Africa’s political and economic challenges require honest reflection and bold

solutions.

 

 

As the election approaches, voters face a crucial decision that could reshape the country’s future.

 

Will the ANC reform and regain trust, or will South Africa embark on a new political chapter?

 

Only time will tell, but Moeletsi Mbeki’s warnings serve as a stark reminder of the stakes involved.